The Ethereum price showed a slight dip of 0.3% during Wednesday’s U.S. trading session, currently sitting at $2,432. This neutral candle formation suggests an indecisive market with no clear buyer or seller dominance. As ETH continues to consolidate, here are 5 key factors that could push its price in a more decisive direction.

Ethereum’s MVRV Ratios Point to Potential Long-Term Recovery

Data from Santiment shows the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stabilizing around -13.7%. This metric provides insight into the profitability of long-term Ethereum holders over the past year.

Historically, deeply negative values have coincided with major market bottoms, as seen in June 2022 and October 2023. This suggests Ethereum may be preparing for a significant recovery trend in the medium to long term.

Additionally, the 30-day MVRV ratio, which tracks short-term holder profitability, has rebounded from -21% in August to -1.35% currently. This indicates short-term holders are starting to recover, potentially fueling renewed buying interest.

Analyst Warns of Potential Drop to $2,350

ETH has bounced 6% from $2,300 to $2,460 over the past week. However, overhead resistance has sharply rejected the price below the $2,460 weekly open.

If Bitcoin fails to show bullish momentum, Ethereum could fall to $2,350 and retest the accumulation zone on the hourly chart. This support level could help reinvigorate bullish momentum for a sustained reversal.

Declining Activity and Rising Supply Signal Bearish Outlook

Since early October, 24-hour active addresses on the Ethereum network have dropped 15% from 512,800 to 434,200. This decrease suggests waning interest and participation, supporting a short-term bearish outlook.

Furthermore, ETH supply has steadily increased since July 2024, coinciding with the extended price correction below $3,000. This trend indicates investors moving assets to exchanges, increasing selling potential.

Whale transactions over 100,000 ETH have remained consistently low, under 1,000 since mid-August. This sluggish large holder activity during the recent price rebound suggests the recovery failed to capture much attention from these key market participants.

Ethereum Foundation Wallet Transfers 2,500 ETH to Bitstamp

An Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet recently moved 1,200 ETH (worth ~$3.03 million) to Bitstamp exchange. This wallet originally received 51,251 ETH from the Foundation in November 2015, valued at $51,200 then and $124.5 million today.

Large transactions from foundation-linked wallets often create market uncertainty or trigger temporary volatility.

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Hints at Potential Move

The daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation over the past two months. This pattern typically drives temporary consolidation before a directional breakout.

A break below the lower support trendline could accelerate selling pressure, potentially pushing ETH from $2,200 down to $2,000.

Conversely, an upside breakout around $2,600 could reinvigorate bullish momentum for a rally above the $3,000 psychological resistance level.