The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes have diminished prospects for a 50 basis point rate cut in November, presenting a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. This comes after the market had already priced in expectations of a 50 bps cut following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks after the September FOMC meeting.

The September minutes are likely to inject more uncertainty into the market, which could negatively impact Bitcoin’s price. Prior to their release, market participants were confident about another 50 bps rate reduction at the November FOMC meeting.

However, the minutes reveal that Fed officials plan to continue monitoring economic data to assess the appropriate monetary policy stance. The committee stated they would be prepared to adjust policy if necessary to achieve their 2% inflation target.

According to the minutes, the Fed will consider a wide range of information in their assessments, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments.

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release will be a key focus, especially after last week’s U.S. jobs report already tempered hopes for a significant rate cut. The Fed minutes have further dampened these expectations, creating uncertainty that may make traders hesitant to allocate more capital to Bitcoin.

The approaching U.S. presidential election is another factor contributing to market uncertainty. Beyond rate cut speculation, investors are wary about potential election outcomes and the volatility that typically accompanies this period.

Interestingly, Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin could trend upwards if Donald Trump’s election chances improve. Current Polymarket odds show Trump with a 53% chance of winning compared to 46% for Kamala Harris. The analysts suggest Bitcoin could reach $90,000 if Trump is victorious.

However, historical patterns indicate Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high after the election regardless of the winner. The November FOMC meeting is scheduled to begin on November 6th, just one day after the U.S. election.

Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt has forecasted a Bitcoin rally to $135,000 by August or September 2025, which aligns with predictions for Bitcoin’s peak in the current market cycle.